Has Carson Palmer regressed since 2005 -- a look at the most insane question of all-time

Published July 16, 2009 at 7:24 p.m.
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...More photos »...by Tom Uhlman - AP...

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...26 days ago:...Cincinnati Bengals' quarterback Carson Palmer looks for an open receiver during football practice in Cincinnati Friday June 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)...

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Sitting on a barstool after work, listening to other Bengals fans express themselves about the team (whether you want to hear it or not) can be enlightening. I know I don't hold all opinions of everyone else and I realize that I haven't heard every opinion expressed. There is an opinion, however, that I've heard before and haven't brought up for discussion.

Is Carson Palmer regressing? No. Surely not God of the Golden Arms!

The argument is that since Kimo Von Oelhoffen "unintentionally" destroyed Palmer's knee during the 2005 Wild Card game, Palmer hasn't been the same. I don't think there's really any question to that. Palmer has admitted in the past he's had comfort issues while a pack of angry bulldogs are swarming him in the pocket. He wasn't stepping into the pocket like he did before the injury. His efficiency has gone down, as his passer rating, touchdowns while his interceptions increased. The argument that people make while saying Palmer is regressing, suggest this: look at his stats. So let's look at his stats (you can ditch 2008...please):

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Season	Game	Comp	Att	PCT	Yards	Avg	TDs	INTs	Sacks	Rating
2008	4	75	129	58.1	731	5.7	3	4	11	69.0
2007	16	373	575	64.9	4,131	7.2	26	20	17	86.7
2006	16	324	520	62.3	4,035	7.8	28	13	36	93.9
2005	16	345	509	67.8	3,836	7.5	32	12	19	101.1
2004	13	263	432	60.9	2,897	6.7	18	18	25	77.3

But then your mind starts wondering, like your brain putting up a hand and saying with its best Dr. McCoy impression, "what a damned minute". Accepting stats as your only reasonable argument, is, in my mind, dangerous. The story isn't told through stats. It's more than that. Different schools apply. Some include the precious art of winning football games -- like how Paul Brown judges quarterbacks. Others call into question the players, or the offensive system/coordinator that's calling the game. Either way, stats doesn't do it alone.

If you base the argument of regression on winning, I can't argue against that. Winning is winning. There's nothing else. Since beating Oakland in 2006, the Bengals lost 12 of their next 19 games. Would it be fair to say that there's regression in Palmer's game because the team hasn't won much since starting 8-5 in 2006? While I don't subscribe to that argument personally, I think it's more than fair to make. Quarterbacks are paid and expected to win the game. Is that fair? Maybe not. It just is.

I believe that the argument that ALL pieces of a team have to work together for there to be reasonable success. The Bengals defense has always been a detriment. In 2006, the scoring defense ranked 17th. In 2007, the scoring defense ranked 24th. You can see the increase in passing attempts from 2006 to 2007 as the Bengals defense kept giving up more and more points. It wasn't just the defense. The rushing offense started stumbling (badly). Rich Braham and Eric Steinbach left -- two offensive linemen that were a big reason for the team's offensive success. Levi Jones and Willie Anderson suffered injuries in which they never recovered from in their Bengals career. And through it all, Bob Bratkowski was here.

The Bengals are playing from behind. The Bengals have a declining rushing offense. There is no balance. Balance doesn't exist anymore. It's gone.

Anticipating this, defenses started using 5-6 defensive-back formations. With how this offense is built, once balance started becoming imbalanced, the offense as a whole struggled. Look at the following chart, which shows an increasing differential from 2005 (the team's best year in, well, a really long time) and 2007 in terms of plays called-- the span of the argument that Palmer is regressing.

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Season	Rank	Passes	Rushes
2007	10th	575	416	+ 159
2006	8th	523	435	+ 88
2005	6th	538	459	+ 79

The issue here is whether you believe it. I can make a better statement. Palmer hasn't regressed since 2005. The entire team has. But that's not the issue we're discussing. Do you believe that Carson Palmer has regressed? Or do you think I should just stop listening to drunk people at bars.

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